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One thing I have seen repeatedly in the online games market is what I can only describe as "hype-induced demand tension". The market grows overall at a pretty steady rate, roughly 60% annually, but the actual tracking shows a repeated sine wave overlaid on the growth. New game is coming out and generating a lot of buzz, this suppresses growth across the entire market for 6 to 9 months, then all that growth catches up in a burst upon the release of that game.

If the pattern holds true, LOTR is heading for 1.5-2M subscribers. 3M at the outside. Tabula Rasa does not have the same kind of momentum going for it, for a variety of reasons I believe TR is a "Second Game", the kind of thing people move to when Boiler Plate Fantasy Diku pales, and it's looking at a high side of 800K at most (more likely 400-500K). That's based strictly on market dynamics for both.

--Dave