One thing I have seen repeatedly in the online games market is what I can only describe as "hype-induced demand tension". The market grows overall at a pretty steady rate, roughly 60% annually, but the actual tracking shows a repeated sine wave overlaid on the growth. New game is coming out and generating a lot of buzz, this suppresses growth across the entire market for 6 to 9 months, then all that growth catches up in a burst upon the release of that game.
I call this differently, I call this product-driven market ;)
I've been always skeptical about your theory that the market constantly grows. Instead I believe that the products create, grow and even shrink the market. So there's an excellent product and the market grows incredibly, there's nothing and the market remains essentially the same.
When I guess subs numbers I usually intend EU+US. Right now WoW sits at about 3.5M. Do you really believe that LotR is getting even half of that? And when? It took WoW a LONG time and CONSTANT hype and focused interest in the community to reach that peak.
I also usually say that we still didn't move from 400k = HUGE success. The market didn't or barely grew. WoW is the exception. Not one piece of the market, but ITS OWN market.
What I'm saying is: the market may be slightly bigger due to exposition, but it's not as big as people say to justify all this enthusiasm and all sort of stupid start ups. It's a growth, but it's a growth completely compensated and even overwhelmed by the stronger competition and (relatively) higher standards and expectations.
Making a MMO today isn't simpler than how it was five years ago. Arguably, it's HARDER, more risky and likely to fail.
Re: The LotR Online short-living bubble
One thing I have seen repeatedly in the online games market is what I can only describe as "hype-induced demand tension". The market grows overall at a pretty steady rate, roughly 60% annually, but the actual tracking shows a repeated sine wave overlaid on the growth. New game is coming out and generating a lot of buzz, this suppresses growth across the entire market for 6 to 9 months, then all that growth catches up in a burst upon the release of that game.
I call this differently, I call this product-driven market ;)
I've been always skeptical about your theory that the market constantly grows. Instead I believe that the products create, grow and even shrink the market. So there's an excellent product and the market grows incredibly, there's nothing and the market remains essentially the same.
When I guess subs numbers I usually intend EU+US. Right now WoW sits at about 3.5M. Do you really believe that LotR is getting even half of that? And when? It took WoW a LONG time and CONSTANT hype and focused interest in the community to reach that peak.
I also usually say that we still didn't move from 400k = HUGE success. The market didn't or barely grew. WoW is the exception. Not one piece of the market, but ITS OWN market.
See here:
What I'm saying is: the market may be slightly bigger due to exposition, but it's not as big as people say to justify all this enthusiasm and all sort of stupid start ups. It's a growth, but it's a growth completely compensated and even overwhelmed by the stronger competition and (relatively) higher standards and expectations.
Making a MMO today isn't simpler than how it was five years ago. Arguably, it's HARDER, more risky and likely to fail.