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I don't think what you describe has ever happened in an MMO, it will be interesting to see. Personally I don't think so. I predict a typical MMO lifecycle, if anything slightly longer then generations before it. WoW is the first MMO to really stretch out the growth period as long as it has. Almost all other MMOs have stablized or started to shrink at the 2 year mark.

On top of it, LotR is a flat out a quality product. Why will people struggle with low quality releases like Vanguard when you can play something polished like LotRs? Add that to the fact that there has not been a quality MMO release in YEARS and in IMHO, your prediction of a "short lived enthusiasm" is off base. It also hinges on what happens with some of the newer releases. Of the "new wave" of MMOs on the way, history has shown again and again the majority of them will perform poorly, especially if they launch unfinished as MMOs are prone to do. I also feel that fantasy based MMOs have pretty much run their course.

But we will see...wanna make a bet :)