Dave Rickey (not verified) on February 26, 2005 - 18:50.
"Conversion Rate" is the rate at which accounts created become paying customers after their free time runs out. It's basically a judgement on the newbie experience.
Active Subscribers X (1 / Percentage Churn) x (1 / Conversion Rate) = The number of boxes you need to sell each month to maintain a steady population.
If the first set of numbers applies, then Blizzard needs to sell about 63K boxes a month to maintain a 440K population. If the second, then they have to sell about 42K boxes a month to maintan 550K. Basicly, conversion rate, churn, and your sustained sales determine your stable population. Drops in any of them affect the size of your subscriber base. There's a "Matthew Effect" here, on one side of the curve your game grows, on the other it shrinks.
The general effect of new game releases is a one-time increase in your churn rate for the period, and usually a reduction in your sustained monthly sales. And conversion rate tends to drop over time, probably because as your playerbase matures the newbie experience degrades (nobody to group with, less incentive for current players to make friends with newbies).
Conversion Rate
"Conversion Rate" is the rate at which accounts created become paying customers after their free time runs out. It's basically a judgement on the newbie experience.
Active Subscribers X (1 / Percentage Churn) x (1 / Conversion Rate) = The number of boxes you need to sell each month to maintain a steady population.
If the first set of numbers applies, then Blizzard needs to sell about 63K boxes a month to maintain a 440K population. If the second, then they have to sell about 42K boxes a month to maintan 550K. Basicly, conversion rate, churn, and your sustained sales determine your stable population. Drops in any of them affect the size of your subscriber base. There's a "Matthew Effect" here, on one side of the curve your game grows, on the other it shrinks.
The general effect of new game releases is a one-time increase in your churn rate for the period, and usually a reduction in your sustained monthly sales. And conversion rate tends to drop over time, probably because as your playerbase matures the newbie experience degrades (nobody to group with, less incentive for current players to make friends with newbies).
--Dave