Dave Rickey (not verified) on February 28, 2005 - 14:59.
The numbers I offerred are only a "best guess". But the 750K number *isn't* believable, it assumes not only a 93.75% conversion rate but a 0% churn, sorry, not going to happen. You can plug different numbers into my formula and get different results, arguing that the Blizzard polish is giving a higher conversion rate, and that the Rest system and a flatter levelling curve is giving a better churn, but it's pretty much the formula that has to apply, Blizzard hasn't done anything so revolutionary as to make the model inapplicable. Even with improbably high rates (90% conversion and 4% churn), you get 650K as the upper bound, so I'll stand by my numbers until Blizzard releases something firmer.
I didn't try to factor for Europe because as you said, they're still on their launch bubble there. And they appear to be using the Baang-centric business model in Korea, so there's no box sales to plug into the formula there. As an over-all figure, your's seems close enough for the limited information we have (and in fact, I said that if they don't bust the 1M threshold, they won't miss it by much). I'd tighten your error bars a little bit, putting them somewhere between 800K and 1.1M worldwide after it all shakes out. A lot of that is going to depend on their sustained sales, whether or not a "Waiting for DDO/MEO" effect sets in. If either or both is further delayed, or the beta reports are highly negative, then I'd revise the estimate upwards.
Best Guess
The numbers I offerred are only a "best guess". But the 750K number *isn't* believable, it assumes not only a 93.75% conversion rate but a 0% churn, sorry, not going to happen. You can plug different numbers into my formula and get different results, arguing that the Blizzard polish is giving a higher conversion rate, and that the Rest system and a flatter levelling curve is giving a better churn, but it's pretty much the formula that has to apply, Blizzard hasn't done anything so revolutionary as to make the model inapplicable. Even with improbably high rates (90% conversion and 4% churn), you get 650K as the upper bound, so I'll stand by my numbers until Blizzard releases something firmer.
I didn't try to factor for Europe because as you said, they're still on their launch bubble there. And they appear to be using the Baang-centric business model in Korea, so there's no box sales to plug into the formula there. As an over-all figure, your's seems close enough for the limited information we have (and in fact, I said that if they don't bust the 1M threshold, they won't miss it by much). I'd tighten your error bars a little bit, putting them somewhere between 800K and 1.1M worldwide after it all shakes out. A lot of that is going to depend on their sustained sales, whether or not a "Waiting for DDO/MEO" effect sets in. If either or both is further delayed, or the beta reports are highly negative, then I'd revise the estimate upwards.
--Dave